Search This Blog

Friday, September 30, 2011

Mankiw...just effing annoys me

This is 'new' to him?
Why am I even surprised by this. I mean...I should expect this complete lack of common sense. The concept of psychological pricing has been researched for decades in marketing, behavioral econ, and psychology literature. The fact that an economist who is suppose to understand how consumers make decisions with prices has little/no knowledge of this kind of research is just so astounding to me - it makes me so pissed off because it just provides that much more evidence that many of our mainstream economists just really don't care about reality, at all.

Monday, September 26, 2011

Change Government, but How?

I agree. But what is the incentive to do so? I've said before that change -real change- is next to impossible in our politics since there is no incentive to do so. What is the incentive for our congress to shoot itself in the foot? Congress doesn't has to change, precisely because it is dysfunctional. Those of us really disgusted have given up voting or caring, and those of us left voting seem to take enjoyment or revel in the partisan cycles. The only one that can truly change the rules of the game is congress, but since congress is the one that created the existing rules, and seems to thrive on it despite so-called public opinion, it seems a rather impossible task, short of outright public protest - which so far has been surprisingly muted.

Thursday, September 22, 2011

The Evolution and Stability of Over-confidence

For decades, heterodox economists have respected and studied the power of uncertainty on bubbles and bursts - and finally, after (during?) the Great Recession, the mainstream is paying it the attention it deserves.

Here's the same topic from an evolutionary biological perspective. Take a dash of history, and a healthy chunk of game theory, and you have one interesting read!

Take THAT Rational Agent Theory!

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Fed's Twist and Shout - Booed by Investors

We don't presently, and haven't since the early part of the Great Recession, had an interest rate problem (and even then, it was really the spread that was the problem - essentially 'twists' are designed to correct such spreads b/w long term and short term interest rates - but that is really no longer a huge issue as both rates are really low). We have an uncertainty, a political, a labor (not just demand - but structural I believe), an expectations, and a fiscal problem - none of which is going to be resolved anytime soon. And none of which is likely to be significantly affected by such a move. IE - the Fed's new 'twist' may cause a back sprain, but it certainly isn't going to relieve any tension in our markets. My point - Dear America, short of a direct hiring program for our nations unemployed a la FDR (which has its own host of problems and after-effects), the government can do NOTHING but wait. ...(or start really fixing things it can fix, like its politics, fiscal problems....)

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

How Did Europe Get Into This Mess?

Long answer here.

Short answer: in forming the European Union, it guaranteed each country a common currency and monetary policy (via the European Central Bank)... but in doing so forgot to create a common fiscal policy / manager.

What this means is that politicians in the various European countries can create more and more debt (like Greece) or can remain relatively austere (like Germany) - all individually. But if one or more of them get in-debted 'too much', the monetary authority can't do much to help them without hurting others, and since there is no one fiscal authority, these large deviations can't be prevented in the first place and long-term austerity measures can't be enforced upfront for the good of the bloc.

On a related note, unless they fix that bigger issue in the future, unlike US which has a moral hazard with helping certain industries and groups of people (auto, banks) at the expense of others, Europe actually has a similar moral hazard but pitting country against country - which is a much more scary problem.

Monday, September 19, 2011

Don't Deny Us Gingers, Just Price Us Accordingly

Apparently the supply vastly exceeds the demand for my fellow ginger sperms.

Well, ok, but this is bound to happen, and happen alot, because apparently they don't charge differently for different characteristics...

Oh, they'll charge you more for 'washed' semen (at $125 - whatever the hell that means) versus unwashed ($100) at the cheap level and they'll charge extra for flat profile info, but they don't charge less for redheads and more for those with brown eyes, for example.

If you have an over-supply, basic economics says you should just cut your price (pay redheads less to deposit and charge those who want ginger-sperm less to get it), rather than turn people away at the door!

Link between crime and inflation?

Richard Rosenfeld says yes, a positive one:
"A key mechanism linking inflation to crime is the price of stolen goods," he adds. "Price increases make cheap, stolen goods more attractive and therefore strengthen incentives for those who supply the underground markets with stolen goods. The reverse occurs when inflation is low."

Color me wrong, but I have a hard time buying the fact that today's too-stupid-to-wear-a-mask robbers and killers are really spending that much time thinking about the inflation rate of the economy. I can maybe see this as a factor for certain commodities during potential bubble formation (like Gold for example), but to say total / aggregated crime rates move with inflation seems quite a bit far-fetched to me. Especially, since inflation has been on the up-tick over the past year or so....