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Tuesday, July 5, 2011

How to fix America's dependency on foreign goods

First, one has to admit there a dependency and that such a dependency has some problems.
I admit there is, and I do think there are problems when we rely on China and Vietnam and Thailand etc. for many of our goods.   Largest amongst these is the environmental issues that arise from shipping relatively cheap goods across oceans and all the non-monetized costs that the Earth ends up sucking up.

Recently Indy Star Op Ed columnist Matthew Tully wrote: "each beer mug or towel made elsewhere is a job that doesn't exist here..."  
That's the kind of rhetoric you hear from populists and expect from uninformed columnist (like this).  Of course we know that is not true.  Buying cheap goods from others affords us make and sell other kinds of goods through specialization - and that requires and utilizes a whole other kind of labor pool.   Arguably, it affords us a more advanced labor pool.  So Tully goes overboard and over-sells the argument and offers no good solutions.   Only that he wishes someone would "start a dialog."  YOU ARE A REPORTER with a 'major' newspaper - why don't YOU start a real dialog talking about solutions....  But since you didn't here's some of my ideas:

With the exception of perhaps China, our over-reliance on (cheap) foreign goods is NOT their problem - it's solely our problem.  Also, our problem is not mainly the buying of foreign goods, it is the unnecessary/irrational buying of goods, period.  So, first, we (the US) need to get off our high horse and recognize our addiction.

How do we do that?  Well, we need to educate, re-educate, and shift people's priorities.   First, we need to mandate business and finance courses as much if not more than we mandate science and English - in all levels of education.  We need to teach students the value of savings, prudent investment, worthy spending, entrepreneurship, environmental concerns, retirement, etc. WAY earlier than we presently do.  Stop making money an adult issue.  It's not.

I know....now you are thinking.  "Hippie!  How are we gonna pay for all those new programs."  Well, simmer down son and let me tell ya.  I actually have two ideas.  First, we could replace out-dated / unnecessary education programs.  Spelling comes to mind, as does shop...but there may be others.  Second, and this has to do with the "re" part of "re-education," we need to eliminate or scale-back some of our entitlement programs.

OK OK sit down and stop gasping.  Yes, we need to.  I didn't used to think that.  I used to be as much of a liberal as the next guy wearing a tweed jacket, but not anymore.  I've learned via working in government, and observing activity in the economy that people EXPECT things to be GIVEN to them.   Students think As are deserved even if they miss 1/4 of the classes (happens all the time to me - I'm not joking), old or poor people expect hundreds of thousands of dollars in medicare and medicaid and social security, rich people expect big tax breaks from Republicans and the ability to cheat on their wives undisturbed, Chrysler expects to be bailed out when they go bankrupt again in 20 years.... All this means we need to own up to the fact that we have trained the average citizen to expect  that they can buy a house on credit that is way out of their means, that they can run a ponzi scheme unfettered, that they can buy a $400 watch from Wal-Mart meanwhile collecting unemployment benefits.   The problem, my fellow Americans, is that we buy shit we don't need, with money we don't have, from often-times shady States that have no problem feeding our addictions.   One way to reduce the addiction is to reduce the expected high - and the best way to do that is to cut some of it off, and re-educate.

Monday, June 6, 2011

WAIT!  But ...but... I have a really high GDP/capita!  ...Money doesn't always buy happiness you say?
 Now I'm depressed. 

Yours,
US of A

Saturday, April 30, 2011

Or perhaps economics will remain a discipline that forgets most of what it once knew and allows itself to be continually distracted, confused, and in denial. If that were that to happen, we would all be worse off.

Keep talking reality Prof. Delong.....you may be the only one in with any clout in mainstream economics doing so....

Monday, April 4, 2011

Changing the NCAA

I would suggest that Becker / Posner doesn't go far enough.  To me, we need to call a spade a spade and recognize that the really good players - the Division I players - are going to college for sport, not for knowledge.  With that in mind, Division I athletes should be, as Becker / Posner allows, able to collect large sums of money and scholarship for their play.  However, we should destroy this false idea that athletes are or should be academics.  It boils down to this - college is the pro recruiting ground, and if you can't take the basketball out of the college, you've gotta take the college out of the basketball.

Players should be forced to devote themselves solely to the athletics department - to prepare themselves to specialize in what they probably were going to anyway.  Granted, not everyone goes pro from Division I play at college, but those that don't often take careers not far removed (little league coaches!).  Colleges of course can still maintain the lower divisions to intermingle with academics - with pay restrictions of course.  Think of that as the intramural (for fun) league(s).  The average GPA of college sportsmen is atrocious - it's no wonder.  Even Butler, the highest GPA in the business is averaging a lowly B.

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Reviving Macroeconomics

I hope Prof. Stiglitz is correct that there can be some serious movement on reform (or reviving as I prefer).  But, to write the entire article and not mention or give credit to the heterodox post-Keynesian economists who have for years had these credit models at the ready (and were largely ignored), is inexcusable.

I am skeptical that reform can occur from the inside (mainstream).  The 2 main reasons why economics isn't economics anymore:  one, the early economic thinkers (Smith, Hume, Marx etc) weren't tied to the God of mathematics.  Mainstream economists treat math, and all of its boundaries, like a crack addiction.   More importantly, economics isn't economics anymore - much of it appears to be politics - colored with an economics pen.  The major economists that the average person or politician listens to are really political themselves (Krugman, Mankiw etc....all have a political philosophy).  It's easy to create a few assumptions (since that's the problem of being tied to math) which of course give you the answer that makes your inner politician smile.  So the classical 'economists' assume some things about rationality etc. and wow - lo and behold if we leave the market alone, it works.  Keynesian economists make some assumptions about markets breaking and lo and behold, we need government.  I am not delusional  - economics doesn't create ones politics, politics creates ones economics - unfortunately all too often.

Friday, February 4, 2011

When Jobs Stats Are Meaningless - and When the Media Confuses

...Typically always true from November - January imop.
But this one is particularly f***ed up. 

News is reporting that according to BLS only 36,000 jobs were added in January (about 1/4 of what was expected).

Meanwhile, BLS reports the unemployment rate falls by another 0.4% - 2 months in a row - to 9.0%.

Not only of course do we have the holiday season confounding the trends from Dec-January, but we have the huge storms that have racked the country in the past few weeks that may be messing things up.

In any case, it is important to note that BLS reports 2 surveys:
The first is the household survey (which surveys people, duh) - that is where we get the unemployment rate.
The other survey is for businesses and the government - that is where news organizations usually report jobs gained or lost.  (36,000 more employed in Jan. compared to Dec. 2010)

The unemployment rate simply cannot be compared to establishment based employment payroll changes because the two numbers come from 2 completely different surveys, measuring slightly different things:

Reported change in civilian employment from Dec. 2010 to Jan. 2011 (private): 117,000
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY

Reported change in total private non-farm employment from Dec. 2010 to Jan. 2011: 36,000
ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY

The unemployment rate comes from the survey of the former statistic, not the latter.  Media does everyone a dis-service by not pointing this out.

The household data shows a very large drop in the labor force (almost 500,000 people) compared to a much lesser drop between November and December - undoubtedly a misleading number due to the holiday season.

So, you know what you should do with all these news reports and the January statistics?  Throw them in the garbage, and wait for February and March.