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Thursday, November 1, 2007

A Looming Recession?

Here are some headlines from my newsline feeds on my google homepage:
"Foreclosures jump 30 percent"
"Stocks plunge amid surging oil"
"Chrysler to cut up to 12,000 jobs"
"Rash of Reports Exposes Vulnerable Economy"

And then there is this seeming counterpoint from some IU economists...:

http://www.insideindianabusiness.com/newsitem.asp?id=26238

Not being versed in the specific econometric modelling used for such forecasts, I can only use my best educated guess as to where the economy for the US (and Indiana) is headed. But given the plethora of negatives that have happened this year, and given the fact that hardly anyone expects that to turn around soon, AND given that the Fed can only go so far in loosening the money supply without risking inflation given rising energy prices etc, I don't know if I would be as optimistic as the IU economists. The economy HAS been resilient to date, but let's not be fooled by that whole "New Economy" schtick. Resiliency has its limits.

3 comments:

wm8c said...

Personally I think the recession has already begun, at least where Michigan is concerned. The economy of this state being so tied to the automotive markets has left us reeling from unemployment levels, which in turn fuel the inability for many to maintain any type of purchasing power, which in turn causes further unemployment and on and on.

Then of course, there is our Canadian born governess who thought raising our taxes was the prudent thing to do instead of further management of our government spending and resourses. I definately don't think the country is in a recession as of yet but, the earmarks are in place for it to follow if we are not careful.

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soma taha said...

Fairly certain he will have a very good read
http://www.prokr.net/2016/09/insulating-companies-3.html
http://www.prokr.net/2016/09/insulating-companies-2.html
http://www.prokr.net/2016/09/insulating-companies.html