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Tuesday, February 24, 2009

A little optimism.

Consumer confidence down, stock market down (related), Fed outlook fairly gloomy, BUT:
on a more optimistic note.....

Could these numbers be blips? Take CPI for instance. It is fairly common I believe for price changes to be more volatile in recession, but given the depth of their fall in recent months, I would not have expected the .4% gain in January. The question then is, is this a sign of monetary policy working, or a glitch in the way BLS measures the data, or a reflection of economic uncertainty?

...I have no idea. No question that the monetary policy (particularly the non-traditional stuff) has had some significant benefit. But there's also no question that it is not doing everything that economists hoped it would.

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