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Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Chartalism - Causality and Necessity is Problematic

From-http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=4870
(S – I) = (G – T) + (X – M)

So total private savings (S) is equal to private investment (I) plus the public deficit (spending, G minus taxes, T) plus net exports (exports (X) minus imports (M)), where net exports represent the net savings of non-residents. That has to hold as a matter of accounting. It is not my opinion.

Thus, when an external deficit (X – M < 0) and public surplus (G - T < 0) coincide, there must be a private deficit. While private spending can persist for a time under these conditions using the net savings of the external sector, the private sector becomes increasingly indebted in the process.


I've continued my skepticism on Chartalism's basic arguments. First, I don't think, as many of them claim, that mainstream economists are ignoring an accounting identity. I am not particularly mainstream, but I think Chartalists are over-selling their argument. I agree with the above accounting equation. What concerns I have are two fold:

1. That the causality does not necessarily have to be government deficits CAUSING a net savings. An accounting identity is just that - it is not a model of causality. THe identity leaves open numerous and simultaneous causation runs. Net savings could fund deficits, a capital account surplus could fund net investment....

2. I disagree with the above statement, "...private spending can persist for a time under these conditions using the net savings of the external sector, (but) the private sector becomes increasingly indebted in this process."
How is this supposed indebtedness a given? If we are running a current account deficit, and by definition a capital account surplus, foreigners are providing us part of their savings to fund our negative net savings and government debt. What is it about this that is unsustainable for as long as our currency and economy is strong?

I agree with the typical post-Keynesian argument that debts financed from abroad can lead to bubbles in some cases, but not necessarily this Chartalist subgroup. I don't see how this means the solution is for government debt (deficit spending) to replace foreign funding to pay for investment spending. Further, I don't see how encouraging further private savings (less consumption) would be somehow less attractive than running large government deficits.

I get that the government is the monopolist of money and therefore has no offsetting liabilities for money assets in aggregate. I don't get how it necessarily follows, given the above, that the government should just spend and spend and spend, and print and print and print.

I'm still open to dialogue on this, but I have to say, the inability of chartalists to present a cohesive argument is not appealing. (And I've read up a LOT on this subject).

35 comments:

Tschäff said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Tschäff said...

I see you are still confused about what they are saying. Don't be so quick to write them off. You are on the right track, understanding what these guys are saying will make you an even better economist.

I'd suggest you first read more, and if you still don't understand comment on their blog, the authors and other commentators are most helpful, and I have yet to see anyone find a chink in their logic.

Tom Hickey said...

Why not just ask Bill Mitchell? He often responds to comment in a post, and sometimes in a later Q&A post, or even in a separate post that addresses the issue.

Garth said...

I've read plenty - I've read their blogs, I've read their blog comments....which tend to go round in circles. I'm not writing them off. I suggest that one of them write a cohesive paper on the subject and get it published by their peers in a respectable journal. If their argument is so "obvious" that shouldn't be a problem.

Tschäff said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Tschäff said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Tschäff said...

They build on what heavyweight theorists like Minsky, Fisher, Lerner, Knapp, Innes and actual actors who own banks (Mosler) and worked in central banks (Goodhart) say.

Not that I think mainstream econ journals are very accepting of revolutionary knowledge, if you insist I think here is a good place to start:

Dr. Scott Fullwiler addressed the intemporal budget constraint at length in his paper Interest Rates and Fiscal Sustainability published in the Journal of Economic Issues Vol. XLI No. 4 in 2007.

Dr. Stephanie Bell Wrote a paper Do taxes and bonds finance government spending in the Journal of Economic Issues 34,(3) in 2000

from the bank of international settlements: Unconventional monetary policies: an appraisal
www.bis.org/publ/work292.htm

It is much too long to write about all the connected topics in one paper but there books if you are truly interested.

Garth said...

They build on a lot of good theorists...many of which you mention I've already read. But building off of ideas isn't the same as presenting a cohesive thesis on a topic.

Tom Hickey said...

Neo-Chartalism/MMT is based on national income accounting and stock-flow consistent macro models. The definite work is Monetary Economics by Wynne Godley and Marc Lavoie (2007). Wynne Godley and Francis Cripps wrote a macro textbook. Macroeconomics, based on this approach (1983). It is now out of print, but used copies are available. Bill Mitchell and Randy Wray are working on a macro text now.

Garth said...

The textbook might be interesting - but I wonder if the reason the first one is out of print is because the theory isn't really grounded yet....seems a little like putting the cart before the horse to me.

Tom Hickey said...

Wynne Godley was at the British Treasury in economic analysis and forecasting for fourteen years. Then he became director of the Department of Applied Economics at Cambridge University, which looks at economics in relation to policy-making. Here is his vitae and biblio.

The reason this approach hasn't caught on is that it is operational rather than theoretical. Most economists don't know much about actual operations. Warren Mosler was explaining MMT to Larry Summers one time, and Summers said, "I don't understand reserve accounting." This was when Summers was at Treasury under Rubin.

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