Thanks to Mankiw for this.
Both Paul Krugman and Alan Reynolds (and Mike Moffatt) don't believe oil specualation is significantly driving prices.
Last week I made the argument that it could be, in so far as more and more speculators enter the market (as perhaps measured by increasing volume of "buys" in the oil futures markets).
I also noted that perhaps speculation itself was feeding global demand (inventories etc).
But I think the empirical data presented particularly by Alan Reynolds suggests otherwise.
So I concede the point. It's the fundamentals stupid.