Fiscal stimulus works, and it works more than most economists and analysts give it credit for. Since the field of econ has slowly steered away from studying short-run effects, in favor of focusing on supposedly long-run topics, it seems have ignored the fact that fiscal stimulus works exactly like the neo-Keynesian model says it should. One can still credbly argue whether or not stimulus is worth it, but you can't argue it doesn't work. There are still a few prominent (mainly Chicago school?) new classical economists arguing that even short-run effects of tax cuts are negligible to non-existant; if reality doesn't change their minds, I don't know what will.
It seems like all those bogus and unrealistic assumptions about: perfectly "rational" people with "rational" expectations (people that take into account their entire life-cycle at all times when making decisions and are in the aggregate generally 'correct' about their expectations), costless information gathering, perfect inter-generational altruism, etc, ... are exactly that - bogus.
From Bloomberg (quotes)
Tax cut effect on income/GDP:
"The gain in income was almost five times larger than the median forecast of a 0.4 percent gain. Disposable income, or the money left over after taxes, surged 5.7 percent, the largest increase since May 1975. "
Tax cut effect on spending:
"Adjusted for inflation, spending rose 0.4 percent, the biggest gain since December [Holdiays] 2006. "
Having said that though, there is a 'kernal of truth' to ricardian equivalence and rational expectations. Tax cut effect on savings:
"Because the increase in spending was smaller than the gain in incomes, the savings rate jumped to 5 percent, the highest since March 1995, from 0.4 percent in April. " ... That's a huge jump in savings, but I would suspect that spending will continue to be higher than normal for the next few months because of the tax decrease - which will serve to depress the savings rate during that timeframe.
All in all though, it seems like all those bogus and unrealistic assumptions about: perfectly "rational" people with "rational" expectations (people that take into account their entire life-cycle at all times when making decisions and are in the aggregate generally 'correct' about their expectations), costless information gathering, perfect inter-generational altruism, etc, ... are exactly that - bogus.
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